This month I want to talk about sweeping claims made in the press about the recovery of the US housing market, and how they relate to the actual statistical reality in our local Sarasota real estate market.
Real, Local, Numbers Tell the True Story
I recently read a statistic that said national real estate values were at 86 percent of their 2007 peak. I am not going to debate its validity, I just don’t think you can apply those broad national numbers to our local Sarasota real estate market. First, our market peaked in late 2005 and early 2006. Second, no matter how I analyze the numbers, in Sarasota, the market value of homes is nowhere close to 86 percent of their highest value.
To illustrate with an example, we have a client who purchased a Longboat Key waterfront home in 2011. They paid 53 percent of what the previous owner paid in the height of the market in 2006. That property would sell today for roughly 68 percent of the market price eight years ago.
What’s the Real Story in the Sarasota Market?
I looked at various sales to see how close their value was to their highest value. While none of them changed hands recently, it seems that most are now valued at 67-72 percent of their highest value. While I would not use this as a gauge for the entire Sarasota market – as there are many niches even within our little geography – I simply want to demonstrate for the over-speculated neighborhoods in Sarasota, values are not close to their high. This is no bad thing, as I have talked about before, this is a healthy, stable, and savvy market.
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Get the Data in Your Hands – Stay Informed!
Because there is a healthy amount of activity in our local market, you should get a decent feel for the value of most properties by looking at three months of activity. There is no substitute for having this real information in your hands. For the more unique or waterfront properties look back at least six months and possibly a year.
Only with the real, local numbers can you make a real, local and informed choice. Don’t rely on articles in the local gazette a thousand miles from here! Need any help? Call Lee: 941.587.0740.
